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Forecasting the first round of the girls' state tournament




Eight teams will go at it in the first round of the New City Nissan/Hawaii High School Athletic Association Division I Girls Basketball Championships, and only four will advance.

Here is a look at each of the four matchups:

No. 5 Punahou vs. No. 10 Kailua; winner advances to face No. 1 Konawaena
The night cap at McKinley's Student Council Gymnasium will feature a pair of two balanced teams that are effective from all areas of the court. Punahou, the 2014 Division I state champions, has a pair of twin towers down low with juniors Tyra Moe and Vae Malufau, along with two solid guards in sophomores Kamaile Kandiah and Elle Uyeda. Kailua has three players amongst the Oahu Interscholastic Association's top 20 leading scorers: Patria Vaimaona, Taufau Williams and Tara Takata.

I foresee this game being a low-scoring contest with top-ranked Konawaena looming around the corner for the victor. Both coaches will want to play more a half court game and make an effort to work inside so that their respective teams will have juice in the tank to tackle the Wildcats.

This game will come down to whose bigs are more aggressive. The ultimate chess match in the contest will be managing the foul situation. Although Punahou has its twin towers in the paint, the Buffanblu doesn't boast much size outside of Moe and Malufau. If Kailua can get one of these players to sit on the bench with foul trouble, this opens up Williams to use her length in the post. A good portion of Williams' points comes from putbacks when crashing the offensive boards.

On the other hand, the Surfriders kind of goes as Vaimaona does. Vaimaona, the OIA's leading scorer with 20 points per game, has been Kailua's linchpin with her ability to record double-double's on a nightly basis. Her presence in the paint gives the rest of her teammates composure to play their game. Not having her on the floor could pressure the other Surfriders to do too much and play out of character.

I think Punahou has the edge in this one with the experience it has on the team. Majority of its championship winning core last year was retained this year. 

Prediction: The Buffanblu will defeat Kailua, 43-36 to move on to face Konawaena. Punahou's Moe will get around eight free throw attempts and score 15 points in the win.

Baldwin vs. Leilehua; winner advances to face No. 3 Roosevelt
This matchup is a bit harder to decipher considering that I have yet to see either team play. I have seen Leilehua in the past and I do know that senior guard Jerri Maluyo is a top-15 player in the state. When I seen her in the OIA Red title game two years ago, she was real good about getting in the passing lanes for steals and deflections. Junior post Tywanna Abbott is also a solid piece for the Mules. At 5-foot-11 she can be methodical in the paint over small defenders.

Baldwin on the other hand is more of an enigma. It seems like the Bears happened to limp into the state tournament. My good friend Jordan Helle over at ESPN Maui tells me that the Bears started the season strong, but got rattled with injuries. At one point the team played with just five players suited up.

The Bears are led by seniors Kiana Kalehuawehe and Noelle Johnson. Kalehuawehe is their best player and main guard while Johnson provides a solid presence in the post. They've been banged up though; Kalehuawehe has a busted elbow while Johnson has been playing with a broken finger on her shooting hand.

It's hard not to pick the Mules to come away with this one. With Baldwin banged up, the Mules will speed up the tempo and put pressure early.

Prediction: Leilehua will defeat Baldwin, 55-21 to face OIA champion Roosevelt in a rematch of the quarterfinals. Maluyo will score 22 points along with six assists and eight steals.

No. 9 Radford vs. Mililani; winner advances face No. 2 Lahainaluna
A lot has changed since the two teams faced off with each other during the regular season on Dec. 23. Radford has really found its groove and has developed its young talent into key contributors. Mililani on the other hand is trying to find that next gear needed for the postseason after running the table in the OIA West in the regular season.

This matchup will come down to whether or not the Trojans' junior post Shantel Appleby is healthy and ready to play. Since she went down with a knee injury prior to the OIA playoffs, the Trojans have not been the same. Mililani has lost two of its last three games and barely got by Kaiser, 39-37 to clinch a state berth. 

If Appleby is unable to go, the Trojans will have nobody to matchup with Radford's Jasmine Moody, a BYU commit. Summer Bolibol is a nice, scrappy player that you can put down low to fight for rebounds — but it won't be enough against a tall and skilled player in Moody. Regardless, Mililani will need to have a strong game from its guards to keep up with the Rams. Senior Jamie Yuki is a good 3-point and free throw shooter, but someone else needs to step up and knock down shots.

The Rams have a solid core around Moody that hanged around with OIA champion Roosevelt for three quarters. Kennedy Johnson is a solid post player to pair with Moody in the front court and freshman swingman Tanisha Elbourne is a promising player that can hit the corner trey. Guards Michelle Vasquez, Sofia Harris and Jasmyn Peralta all do a good job of handling the press and bringing the ball up court.

Prediction: Radford will avenge its regular season loss to the Trojans and win 39-23. Moody picks up a double-double of 18 points and 15 rebounds as the Rams move on to face Maui Interscholastic League champion Lahainaluna.

No. 6 Hilo vs. Nanakuli; winner advances to face No. 4 Maryknoll
The second game over at Moanalua's gym will feature a pair of teams that have relatively balanced squads. Neither team is over reliant on one particular player for its success. Of course Hilo's Alexis Pana and Nanakuli's Ciera O'Brien are the big names in this particular contest — but each team has a handful of players that can be the hero on any given night.

Hilo brings a lot of experience with most of its core returning from a semifinal finish last year. Pana is the most high profile of the batch with her 5-foot-10 wingspan that can lock down most perimeter players. Sharlei Graham-Bernisto handles point guard duties and also has the knack to knock down the open 3-pointer. Swingman Chailey Cabalis is a good scorer at the wing and Shalyn Guthier is a defensive stopper.

Nanakuli got a big boost this year when O'Brien came over from Moanalua. With O'Brien orchestrating the offense, the Golden Hawks have flourished and finished third in the OIA Division I. Nanakuli also has a pair of 5-foot-11 players in Jade Marfil and Tianna Hanohano who both average a shade under 10 points per game. Marfil is more of a post player while Hanahano can operate from the wing. Sophomore guard Alana Nuuanu is a good back court mate for O'Brien, averaging 8.7 points per game with 11 made 3-pointers this year.

I think the chemistry that Hilo developed together over the past two years will really come to play here. Battles with Roosevelt and Lahainaluna in the state tournament last year, along with Konawaena in the regular season has really galvanized this Vikings team. However, Hilo is playing away from the Big Island and I expect Nanakuli to have a lot of fans at the game. I predict this first round matchup to be the closest out of the four.

Prediction: The Vikings will defeat Nanakuli, 52-47 and advance to face ILH champion Maryknoll. Hilo will see three players score in double figures in the victory.



Reach Michael Lasquero at [email protected].




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