Staff Blog
Final spots in the state tournament up for grabs




On a weekly basis, ScoringLive's "Da Five" will pose five questions relevant to the prep sports world, and get response from five different individuals. What results will hopefully provide multiple angles of insight and analysis for fans to take in.

In this week's installment, our panelists take a look at some of the big games this weekend.

1. Which two teams from the OIA Division II advance into the league title game?

Kalani Takase, SL reporter: Waipahu and Kaimuki. I think the Marauders are the team with the most talent of the four in the OIA D2 tournament. That run game with talented freshman Alfred Failauga seems to be hitting its stride and the defense has been opportunistic. The Bulldogs threw for 331 yards when they beat Waialua way back on Aug. 13, and I think Jordan Solomon and company will do it again Friday night. 

Jordan Helle, ESPN Radio Maui/OC16: It was quite the sequence of events down the stretch of the OIA D2 regular season that left us with the two favorites to make the league title game playing in the semifinal round. Waipahu and Pearl City seemed to be the front runners until the very end of the season, and now those two are playing against each other to keep their seasons alive. Even though Pearl City won the regular season meeting over a month ago, I think Waipahu comes in riding a bit more momentum and playing better football right now. I think the Marauders will meet Kaimuki in the league title game. Both Kaimuki and Waialua come off big victories over Pearl City, but Kaimuki has a few more weapons to pull out a close win. 

Michael Lasquero, SL reporter: I'll stick with my preseason prediction and say the Marauders and the Bulldogs, I'll leave it at that haha. Waipahu played its worst game of the season when it took on Pearl City earlier in the season and I can't imagine they lay another egg to the same opponent. The Chargers have been struggling on offense lately and unless they go back to Isaiah Asinsin at quarterback, which they did when they defeated Waipahu, I see the Marauders winning this game by two scores. In the other semifinal, I could see it going either way between Kaimuki and Waialua. Kaimuki should be the favorite, but somehow I feel that Waialua can pull it off. Waialua rushed for over 250 yards in its win over Pearl City, something unheard of against the Chargers' defense. Kaimuki struggled against the run when it faced Waipahu so that could be a sign of good things to come for Waialua. Still, Kaimuki has the firepower to always remain in the game so it could go either way.

Gary Dickman, ESPN 1420 Radio: There are going to be two great games this weekend for the OIA Division II semifinals. Four good teams are playing, it's too bad two have to lose. It's not easy to pick winners in the games, but here I go. Waialua is playing Kaimuki on Friday, which should be a very close game. These two played on the first weekend of the season back in August. It's hard to base this game off of that as both teams have grown and matured since then. That game had Kaimuki winning by two, 22-20. I do think this will be close, but I'm going to pick Waialua in this rematch. They key for Waialua is its defense, which they've done a great job in all year long. The Bulldogs let up 14 points a game, only letting up over 20 points twice this season. Kaimuki can't match the defense of Waialua. The other matchup is Pearl City and Waipahu, another rematch. And again, I'm going to go with the team that lost the first time around, which is Waipahu. The Marauders only loss of the year was to Pearl City, and they've won four in a row since. With a very talented defense, Waipahu has only let up 15 points a game this year. Also, Waipahu is coming off a bye, and with that extra week time to prepare, I see Waipahu winning a close game. These games will be a fun to watch.

Brien Ing, SL founder: The first semi is a rematch of teams that have gone in opposite directions since their last meeting in Waipahu and Pearl City. I think close wins over Kaimuki and Kalani were exactly what the Marauders needed to help prepare them for a second crack at the Chargers. Conversely, Pearl City has to be a bit rattled after dropping two straight by a combined five points to Kaimuki and Waialua to finish off the regular season. Advantage: Waipahu.

In the other semifinal, it will be interesting to see how much each Bulldogs squad has developed since they first met back on Aug 13. Only Waipahu and Kaimuki have scored more than 20 points against the Waialua defense, while Kaimuki has only been held to under 20 just once this year, a loss to non-league opponent Faith Lutheran. I'm inclined to take offense over defense in this one. Advantage: Kaimuki

2. Who wins the rubber match between Saint Francis and Damien?

Takase: Saint Francis. The Saints have continually improved in developing a consistent run game. They average over 203 rushing yards per game and pounded out 751 yards in their last two games. The only time Saint Francis lost in ILH play this season — a 21-16 defeat at the hands of Damien on Sept. 2 — it was held to 46 rush yards. Damien is as balanced as they come offensively, averaging 177 yards per game both rushing and passing, but I'll take the Saints' defensive secondary over the Monarch's Marcus Faufata-Pedrina in a heads-up battle. Wembley Mailei and Micah Kalei are two of the best DBs in D2. 

Helle: Division II on Oahu is going to be a lot of fun this weekend with the OIA semis and this gargantuan matchup between the Saints and Monarchs. I think Damien is still the most balanced team in the ILH and toughest to slow down in that regard. But Saint Francis has shown the ability to do just that. I give the edge to Saint Francis in this game because its has a little more momentum after a impressive win last week over PAC-5. Damien will have had three weeks off before this game, and that might be tough to overcome. 

Lasquero: Another game that could go either way. On paper, Saint Francis is the better team. The size and talent that the Saints have would be good enough to compete on the Division I level. However, I think Damien is ahead in the mental department. A good amount of the Monarchs' players were around when they made it to the state tournament a year ago. They are also enjoying a good amount of rest while Saint Francis have had to pay a pesky PAC-5 team in back-to-back weeks. The biggest question to me is how are the Saint Francis players handling the biggest game in school history. KS-Maui was in a similar situation last year against Lahainaluna, but it couldn't pull through. If the Saints are too focused on the game, rather than playing in it, the Monarchs can take advantage of it.

Dickman: Saint Francis and Damien should be a great game. It's hard to pick a winner. Two months ago I would have been surprised that the Saints would be playing in this game, so I give Saint Francis a lot of credit because of where they were the past few years to where they are now. I'm going to give the edge to the Saints. They've only lost two games this season by a total of six points and have only let up 33 rushing yards a game. I don't think Damien will be able to pass enough to make up the strong rushing defense of Saint Francis. It should be a close, low scoring game, with the Saints winning.

Ing: To me its really a push, but I'll give a small edge to Saint Francis. The extended layoff for the Monarchs probably helped from a rest and repair perspective, but I think the Saints will definitely be hitting the ground running playing its third game in as many weeks. If the Saints can pound the ball via the run and keep the turnovers to a minimum, that formula should equate to a win over the Monarchs.

3. What adjustments do the Crusaders have to make to repeat as ILH champs?

Takase: Offensively, first and foremost, catch the football. The Crusaders' receiving corps has left their share of completions out on the field. I also think they need to run the football, eat up some clock and shorten the game against Punahou. I don't have a lot of confidence in their secondary to get it done against Nick Kapule and his masterful receiver quartet, so Saint Louis can ill-afford any three-and-outs because the Buffanblu will take advantage of it — likely sooner than later. 

Helle: Saint Louis needs to pressure Nick Kapule on defense, and on offense it needs to be a collective effort. Kapule has settled into such a rhythm this season that he has been historically great as a passer. If Saint Louis can put some pressure on him, and ideally prevent Punahou from jumping out to an early lead, it will make things a bit more difficult on the Punahou offense. Offensively, Saint Louis needs contributions from everyone. If Punahou again goes with a pass rush that funnels Tua Tagovailoa toward an outside spy, Saint Louis could look to counter with crossing routes and backside screens.  

Lasquero: Ditch any formations with a running back and let Tua Tagovailoa run the show in the backfield. Whenever Saint Louis has a running back in for pass protection, Punahou is able to put an outside linebacker on the line (usually Ryan Dominick) and add another player to rush the passer. If Saint Louis goes with five wide receivers, Punahou has to second guess its defense a little bit and sit back and play coverage. The Buffanblu can add more pass rushers, but Tagovailoa is skilled and mobile enough to find the uncovered man. Saint Louis has to make this game a shootout if it wants to repeat as the ILH champ.

Dickman: For Saint Louis to beat Punahou, it has to stop the Punahou defense from applying so much pressure on Tua Tagovailoa like the last time they met. Tagovailoa didn't have much time to throw, and Punahou took away the outside where Tagovailoa was able to run and find space in the first game between the two. Saint Louis will have to do a better job with its offensive line. Punahou's defensive front won that battle, which was the main reason it won the game. Let's see if the Crusaders can make adjustments this time. If Tagovailoa has more time to throw, and space to run, the Crusaders will win this rubber match. But that's easier said than done.

Ing: Saint Louis can score points with the best of them, but I think some measure of ball control might be the best way to a repeat league crown. In the last meeting with the Buffanblu, the Crusaders fell behind early and never really got into any offensive flow early on. Keeping the Punahou offense off the field with a few sustained drives that grind time off the clock might be the recipe to keeping the Buffanblu offensive engine from getting going. Rather than trading touchdowns all evening, I think a lower scoring contest is the way to go.

4. Can Waianae or Farrington get revenge this Saturday?

Takase: I don't see that happening. No disrespect to Jorell Pontes-Borje, but the loss of quarterback Jaren Ulu is huge. Yes, Waianae runs the ball roughly 70 percent of the time and averages a mere 103 pass yards per game, but Ulu is a senior and a two-year starter and he undoubtedly a team leader. And then there's that whole fact they're playing Kahuku, which has simply run over every team it has played in state this year. Kahuku handed Waianae its first loss back in the last weekend of August. The Seariders were held to 28 yards of total offense (20 rushing) by the Red Raiders and lost, 28-0. Farrington played Kapolei just four weeks ago and despite Challen Faamatau's 38-carry effort (for 130 yards) came away with a 28-7 loss. The Govs have to be able to throw the ball against the Hurricanes because Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa is so good he will shutout — or at the very least — minimize Farrington's ability to run the ball to one side of the field.

Helle: It is going to be tough for both Waianae and Farrington. Still, I think both the Seariders and Governors will need to win by playing their game and not by reinventing the wheel. Both will need to control the ball on offense and rely on their defenses to keep them in the game as long as possible. Both teams have the defenses capable of keeping things close, and I think if they can stay within a score into the fourth quarter they've got a shot at pulling the upset. 

Lasquero: Depends on what you define revenge. I could see the Waianae offense getting revenge and getting its first point on the Red Raiders in four meetings, but I can't see the Seariders winning against the Red Raiders. To sum it up, Kahuku is winning the Open Division tournament in my book after seeing them last weekend. Sure, Leilehua isn't entirely an elite team in the state, but I do think the Red Raiders have what it takes to counteract any team that's in their way in the state. On the other side of things, Kapolei is having its best season in school history. Farrington has the best running back in the state, but it will need standout performances else where to keep pace with the Hurricanes' offense. It should be Kapolei and Kahuku in the OIA D1 championship game next Friday.

Dickman: I don't see Waianae getting revenge against Kahuku. Nothing against Waianae, it has had a great season so far, but Kahuku is so strong in every area. Farrington has a chance against Kapolei if the Govs can establish the run. With 1,000-yard rusher Challen Faamatau, they might get the job done. It could happen, but I still like Kapolei in this game.

Ing: Both teams are certainly capable, but I don't see an upset in the cards. 

Waianae just couldn't get going offensively in the first meeting between the two teams on Aug 26, though the Seariders' defense did hold their own against the vaunted Red Raiders' ground and pound. Getting Rico Rosario in particular going early and often could help tip the scales, but getting some production through the air might equally critical. I'm thinking this time around should be a bit closer, but Kahuku should punch their ticket to the OIA Division I title game fairly comfortably.

As for Farrington, for me its about execution on both sides of the ball. It all starts with Challen Faamatau, who is not only a consistent producer offensively but a home run threat to boot, but for me its keeping the yellow flags off the field for the Govs. Kapolei might be known for its offensively prowess, but I think the play of the defense that has been the key ingredient this year. High scoring contest? Perhaps, but the Hurricanes should put up more points than the Governors after all is said and done.

5. Who's the favorite to bring home the Division I state title?

Takase: Hard to say there's a favorite at this point. Hilo and Baldwin are the top neighbor island contenders and I would say Mililani could be perceived as a possible front runner out of the OIA, but I think — despite its record — Iolani could win the whole thing. I think the Raiders are really good on the defensive line, but lack depth and size around it. Tai-John Mizutani has continued to improve and he can lean on a number of reliable skill-position guys in running back KJ Pascua and receiver Justin Genovia. The rigors of the ILH season will have Iolani battle-tested come state tourney time.

Helle: Right now I have to go with Mililani. The Trojans came the closest to pulling off a win in the OIA quarterfinals, and have a young talented group that is still getting better. Campbell also has a win over an Open division qualifier (Mililani over Farrington, Campbell over Waianae), and their defense will be good enough to play with anyone in Division I. Iolani also needs to be in that conversation with how battled-tested they are. The Division I tournament will be very competitive, and it will be interesting to see how Hilo and the MIL Champ (Baldwin or Maui) will fare against the Oahu competition. 

Lasquero: I'll take a shot in the dark and go with Baldwin. Although the Bears have yet to clinch the MIL title, this middle-tier tournament benefits them the most I feel. Everyone is looking at Iolani, Mililani, Campbell, and possibly Hilo or Moanalua and Leilehua, but Baldwin is my pick. The Bears have been grounded offensively and I think that will be the biggest difference in a field that has many spread offenses. They also have some key players returning from a season ago so I give them the edge because of their experience.

Dickman: For the Division I title, I think it will come down to Mililani and Campbell. Both teams are very talented and Campbell finish the season playing its best football. But I'm going to go with Mililani. The Trojans' offense is so strong, and I can see QB Dillon Gabriel and WR Andrew Valladares hooking up a few times to beat a very good Campbell team. Both teams are also well coached. I think Amosa Amosa and Rod York are up there at the top as far as coaches go. Too bad one of them would have to lose.

Ing: Say all you want about the sheer number of losses that Iolani has on its resume, but its hard to argue that Raiders aren't battle tested because of the gauntlet it runs every year in league play. Iolani sports a fairly balanced offensive attack that despite the numbers skewing towards the passing side, runs best when its running back, KJ Pascua, is as well. Justin Genovia is a favorite target of Tai-John Mizutani, and is as good of a possession-type reciever as there is in the state. Couple a two-pronged attack with a defense that's more than held its own against the likes of Punahou and Saint Louis, and I think its a formula for a team that should be extremely competitive in the Division I state tourney.





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